Agenda Index City of Vancouver

ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT

TO:

Vancouver City Council

FROM:

General Manager of Corporate Services, in consultation with the Corporate Management Team

SUBJECT:

Vancouver Trends

 

RECOMMENDATION

CITY MANAGER’S COMMENTS

PURPOSE

Council has requested a Report Reference on the latest Vancouver Trends publication. The Report Reference will focus on trends identified by the Corporate Management Team as being significant, and hence could be of interest to Council. This report is intended as a companion to the Vancouver Trends presentation.

BACKGROUND

1998 is the ninth year of publication of the Vancouver Trends. In 1986, the Vancouver City Planning Commission published Goals for Vancouver. Vancouver Trends, which originated in 1990 as part of a corporate planning process, essentially is a series of charts which provides a way of providing a pictorial assessment of how the City is doing relative to these goals. There are approximately 500 copies of Vancouver Trends printed each year. The publication is sent to members of Council, the Corporate Management Team and directors. This is followed by a news release advising the public that the publication is available fromthe City of Vancouver Planning Department for $7 a copy.

Charts embodied in Vancouver Trends depict changes over a variety of time periods, depending on the availability of data. They are generally constructed for the purpose of ascertaining long-term trends. They are not intended to provide a detailed view of changes from one year to the next, or a complete picture of the City at any one moment in time. All trends are for the City of Vancouver unless otherwise noted. The charts are based on information that is regularly maintained by the City or is readily available from published sources.

DISCUSSION

The Vancouver Trends publication is composed of ten different sections and approximately 200 charts. The presentation to Council will include approximately thirty charts chosen through consultation with the Corporate Management Team. The various departments provided data for the Vancouver Trends document. In some cases additional data was obtained when it was thought to be more informative. This report however, does not attempt to provide a detailed analysis of each topic, but rather provides a cursory glance and recognizes that there are complex issues surrounding the various areas of discussion that cannot be accommodated in this type of format.

For ease of focus, Vancouver Trends publication is categorised as follows :

The Setting of the City

The City has a naturally beautiful setting which should be preserved and enhanced.

Two areas that have shown improvement over the last ten years are water and air quality. Both the Iona outfall and the sewer separation programs contribute to improvements in water quality, while the Provincial Air Care Program and improvements in vehicle technology have helped to improve air quality.

As well as continually increasing the number of street trees, by the end of 1997, the City has created 40 kilometres of greenways which are used by both cyclists and pedestrians. Meanwhile, the growth in neighbourhood parkland has been levelling off which, combined with an increasing population, has resulted in a decreasing neighbourhood parkland per capita over the last decade.

The People of the City

The Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) has been the fastest growing metropolitan area in Canada over the last two census periods (1987 - 1996). Although the City’s population has grown quickly, the region’s population has grown even faster. Within the last few years, the population growth has been driven by international migration whereas earlier in the decade it was interprovincial migration that was driving population growth. This growth in population creates a demand for increased services in the City such as additional police manpower for crime prevention, expanded park and library facilities. With the City being the social, cultural and commercial centre of the region, the population growth has created an increased demand for transportation between the City and other municipalities in the region.

With the recent economic slow-down, population growth has slowed dramatically. In 1997 interprovincial migration dropped by 66%, while in the first half of 1998, the province has experienced a net outflow in interprovincial migration. In addition, international migration which dropped only slightly in 1997 has dropped 27% on a year-to-date basis during the first half of 1998.

The Economy of the City

Strong growth over the last decade has contributed to creating a diverse economy in Vancouver. Close proximity to both Whistler and the U.S. border makes the City an attractive place for tourists. This can be seen in the growth in tourism (statistics on airport passengers, overnight visitors, and cruise ship passengers) which have been experiencing large annual increases. The construction industry has also been quite robust over the last decade. The value of building permits for new construction had grown from $600 million in 1988 to over $1 billion in 1996 before declining to $875 million last year. Other industries that have shown large growth over the last decade include film and high technology.

Last year, Vancouver’s economy was affected by the Asian financial crisis. Reduced trade in primary products (lumber, pulp and paper, copper, and coal) to the Asia-Pacific region during the last six months of 1997 indirectly affected Vancouver’s employment in the transportation and wholesale trade sectors.

For 1998, the Asian crisis continues to affect Vancouver as the local economy (gross domestic product) is expected to grow by only 1.8% as compared to the 2.5% growth experienced in 1997. Lower exports to Asia, reduced port activities and Asian tourists and generally decreased demand for commercial services all contribute to a slow growing economy. As of September 1998, the construction industry has experienced a 30% year-to-date drop in the value of building permits issued in the City. On the bright side, industries which export to the U.S. benefit from the lower Canadian dollar.

The region is experiencing slow employment growth in 1998 for the second year in a row. Unemployment rate will rise to 8.9% by the end of 1998 even with the mitigating effect of slower population growth. The combination of slow economic and labour growth leads to modest per capita personal income growth during 1998.

Conference Board of Canada
Spring 1998 forecast

 

1996

1997

1998

Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

1.1%

2.55

1.85

Total Employment

931,000

942,000

952,000

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

8.5%

8.9%

Personal Income per capital

$27,395

$27,251

$27,620

The Vancouver CMA however, is not as badly affected by current economic conditions when compared to the resource-based economy that is predominant in other parts of the province. Industries such as technology, film and tourism that are located in Vancouver continue to perform well.

The City generates about two thirds of its revenues from property taxes. Of the remaining one third, only a small portion is directly affected by economic conditions. As a result, in the short term, shifts in the economy do not have a large impact on the City’s finances.

The major effect of the economy on City revenues can be seen in service and inspection fees which are directly related to the construction industry and short term interest revenues which will fluctuate with prevailing interest rates.

Vancouver is still well positioned with over $2 billion worth of construction for the Skytrain, and Trade and Convention Centre projects on the horizon. They will contribute to job growth in the region.

However, long-term economic slump could impact the growth of the City’s tax base as reduced construction activity adds less value to the tax base. Reduced tourism from Asia could affect the retail sector with less high-end tourists shopping in the City. The City may experience changes in service demand such as an increased use of library services for resume writing. A prolonged slowdown in the construction industry would impact on the City’s resource allocation. There could also be a downloading of services from the senior level of government. Taxpayers could also be less tolerant of tax increases.

Economic forecasts by their nature involve an amount of uncertainty and their reliability is subject to unforeseen future events. The precise direction of the economy is difficult to predict and the best course for the City is to continue to be fiscally responsible as it faces uncertain times.

The Parts of the City

Between 1991 and 1996 the number of homes in the City grew by approximately 18,000 to a total of 218,540. This substantial growth was made possible by Council initiatives to increase the supply of housing close to the major employment centre of Downtown. The city currently has approved plans and undeveloped capacity under existing zoning to accommodate approximately 70,000 additional units or 110,000 additional people. It will be a challenge to ensure that as much of this capacity as possible meets the needs of residents who will seek many of the features of a traditional single-family home in alternate forms of housing.

Attractive residential neighbourhoods are emerging in the downtown (Coal Harbour, False Creek, Yaletown, and Downtown South) and in former industrial areas (Arbutus Lands, Joyce-Vanness and Cedar Cottage). Many single-family areas have recently been rezoned to RS-5 to encourage the retention of neighbourhood character as older, often smaller, homes are replaced by new dwellings on existing lots. In 1998, Dunbar and Kensington - Cedar Cottage completed comprehensive Community Visions which included directions that would work towards providing an increased variety of housing in predominantly single-family neighbourhoods.

Moving Around the City

Demand for transportation continues to grow. This reflects to a large extent the population growth in the region. One positive sign is that traffic fatalities have not followed the population growth trend. A number of City programs have had an impact on road safety. Police enforcement and the ICBC drinking driving counter-attack program have helped to reduce fatalities, while signalization and left turn bays have helped to both reduce accidents and improve traffic flows.

The Transportation Plan, approved by Council in 1997, states that growth in demand for transportation will be accommodated by improving alternatives to the car, primarily transit, but also walking and cycling. The City has actively promoted alternative transportation modes with the development of greenways and bicycle routes. Transit improvements will be managed through the new Greater Vancouver Transportation Authority.

Leisure in the City

Vancouver residents make extensive use of the City’s leisure services. The number of library registrations and visitors increased sharply in 1995 with the opening of Library Square. Also, use of reference services and the volume of internet access to library and other information sources have both increased during the last few years. In the recreation area, there has been a significant increase in community centre usage over the last decade.

Services to People

There have been significant improvements in the general health of the Vancouver population over the last two decades. Incidents of heart disease and infant mortality have dropped significantly over this period, and most reportable communicable diseases have dropped over the last decade.

Crime rates, which had been growing during the 1980s, have started to decline within the past few years. As of the second quarter of 1998, the overall Vancouver crime rate has dropped 14% from the previous year. The move to community policing is one of the contributing factors in the recent drop in crime rates.

A current issue that is facing the City is the level of crime in the Downtown Eastside. From 1990 to 1997, the calls for police service grew by 46% in the Downtown Eastside while only by 4.2% for the City overall. In fact, city-wide calls for service have been on the decline since 1994. Council recently approved a 1% tax increase which will provide $3.6 million in police funding to be used in the Downtown Eastside. At the time of writing of this report, the Police Board has deferred a decision on the program.

Services to Property

A large part of the infrastructure in the City is maintained or replaced on a life-cycle basis. The condition of the City’s infrastructure is currently acceptable, but as the amount of infrastructure increases and the existing infrastructure ages, additional funding could be required in order to maintain acceptable service levels.

Property losses due to fire have been declining even with medical emergency calls and false alarms slowly increasing. This decline can be attributed to a number of factors including upgrading older buildings to modern fire code standards, the requirement for automatic sprinklers and other new or improved fire protection systems in all new construction, the demolition of many high fire risk structures due to redevelopment, and ongoing public awareness and education programs.

One of the recent initiatives of the City has been to improve the City’s capability in a post disaster situation. Recent Capital Plans have provided funds for bridge upgrading, fire hall replacement and a new post-disaster firefighting (Downtown salt water pumping) system. As well, the City was instrumental in the creation of the new E-Comm facility.

Financial Management

The City has been financially prudent, resulting in a triple-A credit rating. Since 1980, the growth in City expenditures per capita has kept within the rate of inflation. In addition, debt charges have remained within the 15% of revenue target. This has been achieved in spite of the fact that, in real dollars, provincial grants have been cut by almost 90% over this period.

Since the late 1980s, some commercial taxpayers have argued that non-residential taxes are too high. Council has addressed these concerns by approving a shift in taxes from the non-residential classes to the residential class in 1994, 1995 and 1997.

After adjusting for inflation, the general purposes property taxes for the median single family dwelling is essentially the same today as it was twenty years ago, even with the tax shifts discussed above. As well, a 1997 survey done by the Corporation of the District of Maple Ridge shows that residential property taxes in Vancouver are comparable to other municipalities in the region.

Long-Range Planning

The City is embarking on long-range planning, in areas such as capital budgets and operating budgets. With changing economic and environmental challenges, the need for strategic planning becomes more prevalent.

Staff feel that Vancouver Trends could become a valuable tool in the City’s long-range planning process. The annual Vancouver Trends has been published for almost a decade. As a result, most information collected for the document has at least ten years of data. These historical trends could be useful background material in the development of the City’s long-term plans. In terms of benchmarking, this information could be used to assist Council in identifying particular areas of focus as well as setting long-term targets and priorities for action. The trends could also be used to track progresses made toward Council-directed goals.

Staff recommend that the Corporate Management Team incorporates Vancouver Trends into the City’s long-range planning process commencing in the year 2000. This timing matches the election of a new Council and would provide Council with an opportunity to reaffirm existing policies, plans and standards, or establish new ones.

Using the Vancouver Trends in the long-range planning process would involve coordinating with departments to review the relevancy of the various charts in tracking progress towards Council approved targets. These targets would be incorporated into both operating and capital planning processes as required.

CONCLUSION

The Vancouver Trends publication provides a pictorial assessment of how the City performs over the years. It does not, however, attempt to provide detailed explanation of the trends. Rather, it offers a cursory glance, recognizing that there are complex issues surrounding each area of discussion.

With economic, social and environmental challenges facing the City there is a need to focus on effective long-range planning. Vancouver Trends can be valuable background material to be used in the long-range planning process for setting long-term targets and for tracking progresses towards the targets.

As a last note, staff have been working on a web version of Vancouver Trends which should be available to the public before the year-end.

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